THE RACE

Posted at 7:22 a.m. ET

Despite a new ABC/Washington Post poll showing Obama up ten, there are some tentative indications in tracking polls that the presidential race is tightening.   We will wait for confirmation, or non-confirmation, over the next three days.  Advance word is that Zogby, a problematical poll, will show Obama up only four today, down from six yesterday, and that Rasmussen will show him up five, down from six.  Gallup yesterday directly claimed that the race is tightening.

Added to this informed speculation is the fact that Obama normally delivers less than he polls.  So there may be hope that the common tightening of the presidential race toward the final weeks may be happening. 

What must McCain do to place the race in hard reverse?

The first thing, and we've stressed it here before, is to recognize that the press is against him and speak over its head.  I have urged a whistlestop tour across the nation, Sarah Palin at his side.

The second thing is to mount a full-scale defense of Sarah Palin herself.  No, she is not a perfect candidate, and was clearly not up to speed on national policy when she became McCain's running mate.  But in Alaska she is considered a serious governor with very high public approval, and that has not been stressed enough.  A good chunk of the American public has come to love her, gaffes and all, and she grows more confident by the day.  But the McCain campaign must do more for her.  Polls show that she's receiving public sympathy over her treatment by the media.  Sympathy can be artfully used.  Sarah Palin has terrific qualities.  Emphasize them.

The third thing is to articulate clear, positive stands on the issues.  Americans love optimists.  McCain must articulate a positive vision of America, a heroic vision, to go with his life story.  David Paul Kuhn, in The Politico, reports:

Top Republican strategists believe John McCain’s stalled presidential campaign can only be revived if the Arizona senator takes an immediate and decisive turn in direction, one marked by an almost unwavering focus on the economy and a sharp break from Bush administration economic policy.

While Barack Obama’s past associations with controversial figures such as former radical William Ayers should be a part of McCain's closing argument, they say, the GOP nominee needs to primarily concentrate on the historic nature of the current economic crisis and explain why he is better suited to lead the country out of it.

“Either McCain wins the argument over the economy or he loses,” said Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker of the House. “When the economy is this central to everybody’s life, when everybody is as worried as they are now, then when you are not talking about the economy you are not winning.”

McCain must stress that our greatest economic days are ahead of us, then present a vision of how we get there.  He must trash Obama's ideas as 40 years out of date, the failed policies of another era.

At the same time, he must continue to ask the American people this question:  In the crises to come, who would you trust with the safety and security of your family?

The fact is that Obama has proved himself a poor closer in contests past.  Look what happened to him in the final weeks of his battle against Hillary Clinton?  He almost collapsed, and barely crawled across the finish line. 

There's another debate this week.  The press is already writing McCain's obituary.  He must come out fighting, but in a positive way, and he must turn the negative of his age into a positive - a wise man who has been through hell, and knows how to avoid it.

Can McCain win?  It will be difficult.  We rarely have had as smooth a performer, in politics or in circuses, as Barack Obama.  But yes, McCain can win. 

October 13, 2008.